Multi-Scale Threat Assessment of Riverine Ecosystems in the Colorado River Basin

Freshwater ecosystems are facing a deepening biodiversity crisis. Developing robust indicators to assess ecological integrity across large spatial scales and identifying the specific threats and pathways of impairment are thus critically needed if we are to inform freshwater conservation strategies. Here we present the first comprehensive threat assessment across the Colorado River Basin – one of the largest and most endangered river basins in North America – using a spatial framework accounting for the wide range of human activities (land uses, transportation infrastructure, exploitative activities, water withdrawals), pathways (local footprint, overland runoff, upstream cumulative effects), and spatial extent of influence (valley bottom, catchment and river network) known to affect the ecological integrity of riverine ecosystems. We quantified and mapped 69 individual threat indices with geospatial tools for each permanent, ephemeral, and intermittent stream segment within the Basin, encompassing a total of \u3e1,067,700 river kilometers. We further aggregated these indices into components of water quality (diffuse and point-source pollution), hydrology (flow regulation/uses and climate change), and physical system (connectivity and geomorphology). To demonstrate the potential of our framework to inform spatial planning decision processes, we examined the typical combinations of threats experienced by different hydrologic areas and stream segment types, identified candidate watersheds for habitat restoration and enhancement where hotspots of biodiversity and threat overlapped, and assessed the associations between threat indices and in situ measurements of ecological integrity describing a suite of biological (benthic macroinvertebrate, fish), chemical (total nitrogen load, water conductivity), hydrological (flow alteration) and physical indicators (streambed stability, instream habitat complexity). Our assessment highlights clear disparities in term of overall degree of threat that result from different combinations and contributions of individual stressors, with different priorities emerging for perennial versus intermittent or ephemeral stream segments, and between the upper and lower parts of the Basin. Importantly, we showed that our threat indices were generally correlated with biological, chemical, hydrological and physical indicators of ecological integrity they were intended to capture. In addition to its implications for the conservation and management of the highly imperiled Colorado River Basin, our case study illustrates how multi-faceted threat mapping can be used to assess the ecological integrity of riverine ecosystems in the absence of spatially extensive in situ measurements

An iterative and targeted sampling design informed by habitat suitability models for detecting focal plant species over extensive areas

Prioritizing areas for management of non-native invasive plants is critical, as invasive plants can negatively impact plant community structure. Extensive and multi-jurisdictional inventories are essential to prioritize actions aimed at mitigating the impact of invasions and changes in disturbance regimes. However, previous work devoted little effort to devising sampling methods sufficient to assess the scope of multi-jurisdictional invasion over extensive areas. Here we describe a large-scale sampling design that used species occurrence data, habitat suitability models, and iterative and targeted sampling efforts to sample five species and satisfy two key management objectives: 1) detecting non-native invasive plants across previously unsampled gradients, and 2) characterizing the distribution of non-native invasive plants at landscape to regional scales. Habitat suitability models of five species were based on occurrence records and predictor variables derived from topography, precipitation, and remotely sensed data. We stratified and established field sampling locations according to predicted habitat suitability and phenological, substrate, and logistical constraints. Across previously unvisited areas, we detected at least one of our focal species on 77% of plots. In turn, we used detections from 2011 to improve habitat suitability models and sampling efforts in 2012, as well as additional spatial constraints to increase detections. These modifications resulted in a 96% detection rate at plots. The range of habitat suitability values that identified highly and less suitable habitats and their environmental conditions corresponded to field detections with mixed levels of agreement. Our study demonstrated that an iterative and targeted sampling framework can address sampling bias, reduce time costs, and increase detections. Other studies can extend the sampling framework to develop methods in other ecosystems to provide detection data. The sampling methods implemented here provide a meaningful tool when understanding the potential distribution and habitat of species over multi-jurisdictional and extensive areas is needed for achieving management objectives

Effects of point-count duration on estimated detection probabilities and occupancy of breeding birds

Increasingly, point-count data are used to estimate occupancy, the probability that a species is present at a given location; occupancy accounts for imperfect detection, the probability that a species is detected given that it is present. To our knowledge, effects of sampling duration on inferences from models of bird occupancy have not been evaluated. Our objective was to determine whether changing count duration from 5 to 8min affected inferences about the occupancy of birds sampled in the Chesapeake Bay Lowlands (eastern United States) and the central and western Great Basin (western United States) in 2012 and 2013. We examined the proportion of species (two doves, one cuckoo, two swifts, five hummingbirds, 11 woodpeckers, and 122 passerines) for which estimates of detection probability were 0.3. For species with single-season detection probabilities 0.3, we compared occupancy estimates derived from 5- and 8-min counts. We also compared estimates for three species sampled annually for 5yr in the central Great Basin. Detection probabilities based on both the 5- and 8-min counts were 0.3 for 40% 3% of the species in an ecosystem. Extending the count duration from 5 to 8min increased the detection probability to 0.3 for 5% +/- 0.5% of the species. We found no difference in occupancy estimates that were based on 5- versus 8-min counts for species sampled over two or five consecutive years. However, for 97% of species sampled over 2yr, precision of occupancy estimates that were based on 8-min counts averaged 12% +/- 2% higher than those based on 5-min counts. We suggest that it may be worthwhile to conduct a pilot season to determine the number of locations and surveys needed to achieve detection probabilities that are sufficiently high to estimate occupancy for species of interest

Analysis of small-diameter wood supply in northern Arizona - Final report

Forest management to restore fire-adapted ponderosa pine ecosystems is a central priority of the Southwestern Region of the USDA Forest Service. Appropriately-scaled businesses are apt to play a key role in achieving this goal by harvesting, processing and selling wood products, thereby reducing treatment costs and providing economic opportunities. The manner in which treatments occur across northern Arizona, with its multiple jurisdictions and land management areas, is of vital concern to a diversity of stakeholder groups. To identify a level of forest thinning treatments and potential wood supply from restoration byproducts, a 20-member working group representing environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs), private forest industries, local government, the Ecological Restoration Institute at Northern Arizona University (NAU), and state and federal land and resource management agencies was assembled. A series of seven workshops supported by Forest Ecosystem Restoration Analysis (ForestERA; NAU) staff were designed to consolidate geographic data and other spatial information and to synthesize potential treatment scenarios for a 2.4 million acre analysis area south of the Grand Canyon and across the Mogollon Plateau. A total of 94% of the analysis area is on National Forest lands. ForestERA developed up-to-date remote sensing-based forest structure data layers to inform the development of treatment scenarios, and to estimate wood volume in three tree diameter classes of 16" diameter at breast height (dbh, 4.5' above base). For the purposes of this report, the group selected a 16" dbh threshold due to its common use within the analysis landscape as a break point differentiating "small" and "large" diameter trees in the ponderosa pine forest type. The focus of this study was on small-diameter trees, although wood supply estimates include some trees >16" dbh where their removal was required to meet desired post-treatment conditions.4 There was no concurrence within the group that trees over 16" dbh should be cut and removed from areas outside community protection management areas (CPMAs)..

Coupled ecological and management connectivity across administrative boundaries in undeveloped landscapes

Human-induced ecological boundaries, or anthropogenic ecotones, may arise where administrative boundaries meet on undeveloped lands. Landscape-level ecological processes related to factors such as fire, invasive species, grazing, resource extraction, wildlife, and water may be affected due to unique management strategies adopted by each administrative unit. Over time, different management can result in discernible ecological differences (e.g., species composition or soil characteristics). Thus, fragmentation in the management landscape can correspond to ecological fragmentation. Different ecological patterns may emerge due to an increase in the number of management units in a region, or due to an increase in the number of different types of management units in the region. Temporal effects and collaboration history can also affect the emergence of ecotones. We use conceptual models to explore the relationship between these aspects of management fragmentation and the anthropogenic ecotones between management parcels. We then use examples of different management challenges to explore how anthropogenic ecotones can disrupt ecological flows. Our models suggest that cross-boundary collaboration that enhances management connectivity is likely essential to ecological connectivity in the face of environmental and social change

Quantifying ecological variation across jurisdictional boundaries in a management mosaic landscape

Context Large landscapes exhibit natural heterogeneity. Land management can impose additional variation, altering ecosystem patterns. Habitat characteristics may reflect these management factors, potentially resulting in habitat differences that manifest along jurisdictional boundaries. Objectives We characterized the patchwork of habitats across a case study landscape, the Grand Canyon Protected Area-Centered Ecosystem. We asked: how do ecological conditions vary across different types of jurisdictional boundaries on public lands? We hypothesized that differences in fire and grazing, because they respond to differences in management over time, contribute to ecological differences by jurisdiction. Methods We collected plot-scale vegetation and soils data along boundaries between public lands units surrounding the Grand Canyon. We compared locations across boundaries of units managed differently, accounting for vegetation type and elevation differences that pre-date management unit designations. We used generalized mixed effects models to evaluate differences in disturbance and ecology across boundaries. Results Jurisdictions varied in evidence of grazing and fire. After accounting for these differences, some measured vegetation and soil properties also differed among jurisdictions. The greatest differences were between US Forest Service wilderness and Bureau of Land Management units. For most measured variables, US Forest Service non-wilderness units and National Park Service units were intermediate. Conclusions In this study, several ecological properties tracked jurisdictional boundaries, forming a predictable patchwork of habitats. These patterns likely reflect site differences that pre-date jurisdictions as well as those resulting from different management histories. Understanding how ecosystem differences manifest at jurisdictional boundaries can inform resource management, conservation, and cross-boundary collaborations

The changing landscape of conservation science funding in the United States

To understand the changing role of funding sources in shaping conservation science in the United States, we analyzed acknowledgments from published studies, trends in research funding, and survey responses from conservation scientists. Although the U.S. federal government was the most frequently acknowledged source of support overall, U.S. foundations and NGOs were the predominant sources for tropical and socioeconomic research. Acknowledgments of foundation support for conservation research increased over the last two decades, while recognition of federal funds declined. Concordant trends in funding and acknowledgments indicated a changing landscape for conservation science, in which federal support has not kept pace with the growth in conservation research efforts or needs. Survey responses from conservation scientists about their funding sources were consistent with acknowledgment data, and most (64%) indicated that shifts in funding sources and amounts affected the type of research they conduct. Ongoing changes in the funding landscape shape the direction of conservation research and may make conservation science more vulnerable to economic recessions

Ocean Acidification-Induced Food Quality Deterioration Constrains Trophic Transfer

Our present understanding of ocean acidification (OA) impacts on marine organisms caused by rapidly rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration is almost entirely limited to single species responses. OA consequences for food web interactions are, however, still unknown. Indirect OA effects can be expected for consumers by changing the nutritional quality of their prey. We used a laboratory experiment to test potential OA effects on algal fatty acid (FA) composition and resulting copepod growth. We show that elevated CO2 significantly changed the FA concentration and composition of the diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana, which constrained growth and reproduction of the copepod Acartia tonsa. A significant decline in both total FAs (28.1 to 17.4 fg cell−1) and the ratio of long-chain polyunsaturated to saturated fatty acids (PUFA:SFA) of food algae cultured under elevated (750 µatm) compared to present day (380 µatm) pCO2 was directly translated to copepods. The proportion of total essential FAs declined almost tenfold in copepods and the contribution of saturated fatty acids (SFAs) tripled at high CO2. This rapid and reversible CO2-dependent shift in FA concentration and composition caused a decrease in both copepod somatic growth and egg production from 34 to 5 eggs female−1 day−1. Because the diatom-copepod link supports some of the most productive ecosystems in the world, our study demonstrates that OA can have far-reaching consequences for ocean food webs by changing the nutritional quality of essential macromolecules in primary producers that cascade up the food web

Role of Adjuvant Multimodality Therapy After Curative-Intent Resection of Ampullary Carcinoma

Importance: Ampullary adenocarcinoma is a rare malignant neoplasm that arises within the duodenal ampullary complex. The role of adjuvant therapy (AT) in the treatment of ampullary adenocarcinoma has not been clearly defined. Objective: To determine if long-term survival after curative-intent resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma may be improved by selection of patients for AT directed by histologic subtype. Design, setting, and participants: This multinational, retrospective cohort study was conducted at 12 institutions from April 1, 2000, to July 31, 2017, among 357 patients with resected, nonmetastatic ampullary adenocarcinoma receiving surgery alone or AT. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify covariates associated with overall survival. The surgery alone and AT cohorts were matched 1:1 by propensity scores based on the likelihood of receiving AT or by survival hazard from Cox modeling. Overall survival was compared with Kaplan-Meier estimates. Exposures: Adjuvant chemotherapy (fluorouracil- or gemcitabine-based) with or without radiotherapy. Main outcomes and measures: Overall survival. Results: A total of 357 patients (156 women and 201 men; median age, 65.8 years [interquartile range, 58-74 years]) underwent curative-intent resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma. Patients with intestinal subtype had a longer median overall survival compared with those with pancreatobiliary subtype (77 vs 54 months; P = .05). Histologic subtype was not associated with AT administration (intestinal, 52.9% [101 of 191]; and pancreatobiliary, 59.5% [78 of 131]; P = .24). Patients with pancreatobiliary histologic subtype most commonly received gemcitabine-based regimens (71.0% [22 of 31]) or combinations of gemcitabine and fluorouracil (12.9% [4 of 31]), whereas treatment of those with intestinal histologic subtype was more varied (fluorouracil, 50.0% [17 of 34]; gemcitabine, 44.1% [15 of 34]; P = .01). In the propensity score-matched cohort, AT was not associated with a survival benefit for either histologic subtype (intestinal: hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 0.67-2.16; P = .53; pancreatobiliary: hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% CI, 0.66-2.76; P = .41). Conclusions and relevance: Adjuvant therapy was more frequently used in patients with poor prognostic factors but was not associated with demonstrable improvements in survival, regardless of tumor histologic subtype. The value of a multimodality regimen remains poorly defined

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty